Abstract
We describe two approaches to modeling data from a small to moderate-sized epidemic outbreak. The first approach is based on a branching process approximation and direct analysis of the transmission network, whereas the second one is based on a survival model derived from the classical SIR equations with no explicit transmission information. We compare these approaches using data from a 2012 outbreak of Ebola virus disease caused by Bundibugyo ebolavirus in city of Isiro, Democratic Republic of the Congo. The branching process model allows for a direct comparison of disease transmission across different environments, such as the general community or the Ebola treatment unit. However, the survival model appears to yield parameter estimates with more accuracy and better precision in some circumstances.
Highlights
The current paper is concerned with modeling data from a small 2012 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak caused by Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV) in the Isiro municipality in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
The branching process model was based on partial contact network tracing data, whereas survival model used an aggregate approach
The branching process model was based on a configuration model random graph with a Poisson degree distribution, and it explicitly described the direct and indirect contacts of the EVD cases in the community and at the Ebola treatment center (ETC)
Summary
On August 1, 2018, the Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). B. Choi et al, Modeling outbreak data: Analysis of a 2012 Ebola virus disease epidemic in DRC reported an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in North Kivu Province. The current outbreak area is roughly 780 miles away from Equateur province, where an earlier Ebola outbreak was reported in May 2018 This persistent reoccurrence of Ebola in the DRC as well as elsewhere in Africa is a reminder that another large pandemic like the 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic remains possible. The current paper is concerned with modeling data from a small 2012 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak caused by Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV) in the Isiro municipality in DRC.
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