Modeling of Water Quality in West Ukrainian Rivers Based on Fluctuating Asymmetry of the Fish Population

Abstract

Increased concentrations of chemicals in surface waters affect the development of fish and the state of water bodies in general. In turn, the human consumption of fish that have accumulated heavy metals can cause toxicological hazards and endanger health. The importance of this area and the lack of water quality assessment methods in Ukraine based on the fluctuating asymmetry level of fish and the chemical parameters of water informed the object and aim of the current research. The object of this study was the use of fish populations as a bioindicator of water quality. The study had three purposes: (1) the determination of the dominant fish species and a comparison of their fluctuating asymmetry in the studied rivers; (2) the evaluation of the sensitivity/tolerance of the selected fish populations for assessing water quality; and (3) the creation of a model for assessing the water quality of the studied rivers based on the determined fluctuating asymmetry of the typical fish populations. Each of the studied fish populations had different frequency of fluctuating asymmetry (FFA) levels: the common roach had the highest value, and the silver crucian carp had the lowest. The final stage of the study was building an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting water quality based on the FFA of meristic features. Optimal results were obtained for the ANN model with the ReLU activation function and SGD optimization algorithm (MAPE = 6.7%; R2 = 0.97187). Such values for the MAPE and R2 indicators demonstrated that the level of agreement between the target and forecast data was satisfactory. The novelty of this research lay in the development of a model for assessing water quality based on the comparison of the fluctuating asymmetry values of the typical fish populations in the studied rivers.