Modeling of the health impacts of ambient ozone pollution in China and India

Abstract

Ground-level ozone (O3) pollution has become an increasingly prominent environmental problem in China and India, causing serious negative health effects. Based on the global fine-resolution simulation of O3 concentrations and epidemiological results, O3 pollution and corresponding mortalities were evaluated at provincial-level across China and India. Our results revealed that the population-weighted mean O3 concentrations in China and India were 49.2 and 63.4 ppb, respectively, in 2014. The annual deaths attributable to O3 exposure were estimated to be 76,000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 27,000–120,000) and 96,000 (35,000–149,000) in China and India, respectively. The finding of 32.2% less O3-attributable mortality in China than in India was attributed to the combined effects of population size (+39.4%), population aging (+29.2%), baseline mortality rate (−43.7%), and ambient O3 exposure (−57.1%). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that O3-related health burdens in China and India have been reported and compared at the provincial level. The results will improve our understanding of O3-related health impacts and provide a valuable reference for policy makers.