Impacts of projected changes in sea surface temperature on ozone pollution in China toward carbon neutrality

Abstract

The global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to change diversely in the future under different climate scenarios, which will affect the near-surface ozone (O3) distribution and concentration by influencing meteorological states and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Many countries have planned to reach carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century. In this study, the impacts of global and regional SST changes on near-surface O3 concentrations in China in the middle of the 21st century under the carbon-neutral scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1–1.9), compared with the high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5), and possible physical and chemical mechanisms are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Under future climate change, the changes in SSTs in the carbon-neutral scenario relative to the high-emission scenario lead to a dipole change in near-surface O3 concentrations in eastern and western China, with a significant decrease of 0.79 ppbv in the eastern China and a significant increase of 1.05 ppbv in the western China. The cooling of North Pacific Ocean under the carbon-neutral scenario causes a decrease in near-surface O3 concentrations by 0.48 ppbv in eastern China due to the weakened chemical production and an increase by 0.74 ppbv in western China attributed to the enhanced O3 transport from Eurasia. Cooling of Southern Hemisphere oceans leads to anomalous upward air motions over eastern China, which weaken the vertical transport of high-elevation O3 to the surface, resulting in a reduction in near-surface O3 concentrations by 0.58 ppbv in eastern China. Our results suggest that future changes in SSTs in the carbon-neutral scenario will positively benefit O3 air quality improvement in the polluted eastern China, with the North Pacific and Southern Hemisphere oceans playing important roles.