Modeling of the dominican republic energy systems with OSeMOSYS to assess alternative scenarios for the expansion of renewable energy sources

Abstract

This article intends to contribute to a better understanding of the alternatives scenarios for the expansion of the renewable energy sources in the energy mix of the Dominican Republic (DR). The insight gained in this exercise is helpful for decision-makers in the DR and other countries with similar characteristics, such as high vulnerability from the geographical and economic points of view due to climate change and the high dependence on import of fossil fuel. Based on the data available in national databases and additional information gathered from international reports, four scenarios for the expansion of electricity supply were modeled using OSeMOSYS. Characteristics related to the different scenarios such as technology deployment costs, carbon emissions, technological performance, electricity demand, the integration of new generation projects, population growth and reserve margin were considered. Comparing different scenarios against the existing energy policy targets provides information on the contribution of renewable energy generation and sheds light on the ability to meet those targets. The results indicate that renewable energy technologies will play an important role, reaching penetration levels greater than 40% on the horizon. To fulfill the commitment signed by the DR in the Paris Agreement, according to which, by 2030, greenhouse gases emissions must be reduced by 25% compared to 2010 emissions, the model suggests a total investment of 11405.00 MM USD$ that can be made at a rate of 4% each year.