Abstract
Wind has a significant influence on the operational flight safety. To quantify the influence of the wind characteristics, a wind series generator is required in simulations. This paper presents a method to model the stochastic wind based on operational flight data using the Karhunen–Loève expansion. The proposed wind model allows us to generate new realizations of wind series, which follow the original statistical characteristics. To improve the accuracy of this wind model, a vine copula is used in this paper to capture the high dimensional dependence among the random variables in the expansions. Besides, the proposed stochastic model based on the Karhunen–Loève expansion is compared with the well-known von Karman turbulence model based on the spectral representation in this paper. Modeling results of turbulence data validate that the Karhunen–Loève expansion and the spectral representation coincide in the stationary process. Furthermore, construction results of the non-stationary wind process from operational flights show that the generated wind series have a good match in the statistical characteristics with the raw data. The proposed stochastic wind model allows us to integrate the new wind series into the Monte Carlo Simulation for quantitative assessments.
Highlights
To improve the operational flight safety, an Acceptable Level of Safety Performance (ALoSP) [1]is defined to identify the safety level for airlines or airports
This paper presents an algorithm to construct a stochastic wind model based on the operational flight data using the KL expansion method with the vine copula dependence model
For the stationary wind process like turbulence, the similarity of the KL expansion and spectral representation (SR) method is pointed out in terms of construction equations, and the construction results of the turbulence reveal that two construction methods coincide
Summary
To improve the operational flight safety, an Acceptable Level of Safety Performance (ALoSP) [1]is defined to identify the safety level for airlines or airports. Wind has a significant influence on operational flight safety and should be considered in the quantitative assessments of the operational flight safety level. Mathematical wind models such as ’1-cosine’ discrete wind gust model, low-level wind shear model, von Karman turbulence model, and Dryden turbulence model, are commonly used for flight simulation and flight control design [2,3,4]. The general wind models cannot represent the local statistical characteristics of the wind. They are not suitable to quantify the operational risk for a specific airline or airport European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) illustrated the models of mean wind, turbulence, and wind shear for airworthiness assessment [5].
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