Modeling Malaria Prevalence Rate in Lagos State using Multivariate Environmental Variations

Abstract

Malaria is the most significant health problem in Nigeria accounting for about 60% of outpatient consultations and 30% of hospital admissions Federal Ministry of Health 2003. The government has identified the burden that malaria places on the health status of the population and has classified malaria as a public health problem. Malaria even though completely preventable and curable, pregnant women and children under five are the most vulnerable groups and therefore sustainable and evidence based efforts are required to control the malaria disease burden. This research study considered the environmental factors that aid the breeding of malaria carrying vectors, thus the environmental factors considered in this study are that of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity. The significant of this study centers on how to scale-up malaria related interventions, strengthen of systems, and make a major effort to Roll Back Malaria in Nigeria, [1] WHO, 2005. The aim of this research is to establish the significant effect of environmental factors on malaria prevalence rate within the Local Government Areas of Lagos State. The methodology used was to carry out a statistical analysis of these various environmental factors with the malaria prevalence cases that was recorded in Lagos State using a 5 years data from 2009-2013 of malaria prevalence cases recorded with environmental data for the same time frame, and to further use GIS to show the various Local Government Areas with high severe malaria cases as well as low malaria cases. The result obtained from this analysis shows a significant relationship between the malaria prevalence cases and environmental factors of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity, this helped in developing a predictive model. The outcome from this research work can help the government, Lagos State Ministry of Health and donor agencies both local and international see the Local Government Areas within the state that are most vulnerable to malaria epidemic, and further aid them in policy formation, planning and strategy implementation.