Modeling lane-change-related crashes with lane-specific real-time traffic and weather data

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the relationship between lane-change-related crashes and lane-specific, real-time traffic factors. It is anticipated that the real-time traffic data for the two lanes—the vehicle's lane (subject lane) and the lane to which that a vehicle intends to change (target lane)—are more closely related to lane-change-related crashes, as opposed to congregated traffic data for all lanes. Lane-change-related crash data were obtained from a 62-mile long freeway in Southeast Wisconsin in 2012 and 2013. One-minute traffic data from the 5- to 10-minute interval prior to the crashes were extracted from an immediately upstream detector station and two immediately downstream stations from the crash location. Weather information was collected from a major historical weather database. A matched case-control logistic regression was used for analysis. Results show that the following factors significantly affect the probability of a lane-change-related crash: average flow into the target lane at the first downstream station, the flow ratio at the second downstream station, and snow conditions. Additionally, the average speed in the target lane at the first downstream station contributes to the occurrence of lane-change crashes during snowy conditions. According to the model, the probability of a lane-change-related crash under real-time traffic conditions can aid in flagging potential crash-prone conditions. The identified contributing factors can help traffic operators select traffic control and management countermeasures to proactively mitigate lane-change-related crashes.