Modeling Land Cover Change Using MOLUSCE in Kahayan Tengah Forest Management Unit, Kalimantan Tengah

Abstract

A management unit-based land cover change analysis was examined in Kahayan Tengah Forest Management Unit (FMU) to understand past, present, and future land cover to assist forest management planning in Kahayan Tengah FMU. This study aims to model land cover change in 2011 and 2016, predict 2021, and simulate land cover in 2026 in Kahayan Tengah FMU. Modeling land cover prediction and simulation using MOLUSCE from the QGIS plugin. The results revealed that agricultural land experienced significant increase in total area during 2011–2016. Modeling potential land cover transitions in 2011 and 2016 with the Artificial Neural Network method showed a Kappa coefficient of 0.701 in the good category, and simulation of land cover in 2021 with the Cellular Automata method showed a Kappa coefficient of 0.672 in the good category. By 2026, the agricultural land will continue to increase while forest land tends to remain stable in its total area. This study managed to predict land cover in 2021 and simulated 2026 with good accuracy. Thus, this data and information can support forest management planning in Kahayan Tengah FMU. Keywords: forest management unit, Kahayan Tengah, land cover change, land cover prediction, MOLUSCE