Modeling Information System Availability by using Bayesian Belief Network Approach

Abstract

Modern information systems are expected to be always-on by providing services to end-users, regardless of time and location. This is particularly important for organizations and industries where information systems support real-time operations and mission-critical applications that need to be available on 24 x 7 x 365 basis.Examples of such entities include process industries, telecommunications, healthcare, energy, banking, electronic commerce and a variety of cloud services. This article presents a modified Bayesian Belief Network model for predicting information systemavailability, introduced initially by Franke, U. and Johnson, P.(in article “Availability of enterprise IT systems –an expert-basedBayesian model”. Software Quality Journal 20(2), 369-394, 2012)based on a thorough review of several dimensions of the information system availability, we proposed a modified set of determinants. The model is parameterized by using probability elicitation process with the participation of experts from thefinancial sectorof Bosnia and Herzegovina. The model validation was performed using Monte-Carlo simulation.