Modeling groundwater-level responses to multiple stresses using transfer-function models and wavelet analysis in a coastal aquifer system

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In coastal aquifers, dynamic stresses such as climate forcings, groundwater withdrawals, and ocean tidal fluctuations cause nonlinear responses to groundwater levels. Such responses to the stresses impact groundwater resources and related flooding and infrastructure risks at multiple scales. We used time-series models such as transfer-function models and wavelet analysis to quantify the relative contribution of these stresses to groundwater-level fluctuation in wells from the unconfined and confined aquifers in an Atlantic coastal aquifer. Climate forcings, such as precipitation and temperature, explained most of the groundwater-level variation for wells in the unconfined aquifer, whereas groundwater withdrawals were the dominant driver of groundwater levels for wells in the confined aquifer. The impact of groundwater withdrawals also was detected in several wells in the unconfined aquifer. Although the influence of ocean tides on groundwater levels commonly is observed in coastal aquifers, we found that daily groundwater withdrawals can obscure the semi-diurnal coherence signal of the two series. The magnitude of groundwater-level fluctuation that could be explained solely by tides was minor compared to that explained by climate or withdrawal stresses. Transfer-function modeling showed seasonal withdrawals from wells in confined aquifers had a significant, yet heterogeneous influence on groundwater levels in coastal aquifers, which highlights climate and withdrawals as key compounding stresses in coastal hydrology. This study demonstrates the value of time-series approaches to advance characterization of groundwater systems in areas with limited hydrogeologic parameter information.