Abstract
Over the past several decades, Saudi cities have experienced rapid urban developments and land use and land cover (LULC) changes. These developments will have numerous short- and long-term consequences including increasing the land surface temperature (LST) of these cities. This study investigated the effects of LULC changes on the LST for the eastern coastal city of Dammam. Using Landsat imagery, the study first detected the LULC using the maximum likelihood classification method and derived the LSTs for the years 1990, 2002, and 2014. Using the classified results, it then modeled the future LULC for 2026 using the Cellular Automata Markov (CAM) model. Finally, using three thematic indices and linear regression analysis, it then modeled the LST for 2026 as well. The built-up area in Dammam increased by 28.9% between 1990 and 2014. During this period, the average LSTs for the LULC classes increased as well, with bare soil and built-up area having the highest LST. By 2026, the urban area is expected to encompass 55% of the city and 98% of the land cover is envisioned to have average LSTs over 41 °C. Such high temperatures will make it difficult for the residents to live in the area.
Highlights
Every year, human migrations to cities are causing urban areas to grow and bringing rapid changes to their ecosystem, biodiversity, natural landscapes, and the environment [1,2]
Studies show that urban expansion tends to increase urban areas’ land surface temperature (LST) by an average of 2–4 ◦ C when compared to their outskirt rural areas [5]
Rising LSTs and urban heat island (UHI) formations have been linked to high energy consumption, air pollution, and human health problems including asthma and heat-stroke related deaths of children and elders [6,7]
Summary
Human migrations to cities are causing urban areas to grow and bringing rapid changes to their ecosystem, biodiversity, natural landscapes, and the environment [1,2]. While such growth is a sign of the region’s employment growth and economic prosperity, it has numerous short- and long-term consequences. Among the long-term consequences, increases in the city’s land surface temperature (LST) from growing urban built-up areas have received wide attention from geographers, urban planners, and climatologists over the past decade [3,4]. That number increased to 58% in 1975, and today, urban areas house 82% of the country’s
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