Abstract
This study presents a novel approach to analyzing forest regeneration dynamics by integrating a Markov chain model with Multivariate Time Series (MTY) decomposition. The probabilistic tracking of age-class transitions was combined with the decomposition of regeneration rates into trend, seasonal, and irregular components, unlike traditional deterministic models, capturing the variability and uncertainties inherent in forest ecosystems, offering a more nuanced understanding of how Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and other tree species evolve under different management and climate scenarios. Using 20 years of empirical data from the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory, the study evaluates key growth and mortality parameters for Scots pine, Spruce (Picea abies), Birch (Betula pendula), and Aspen (Populus tremula). The model for Scots pine showed a 79.6% probability of advancing from the 1–10 age class to the 11–20 age class, with subsequent transitions of 82.9% and 84.1% for older age classes. The model for Birch shown a strong early growth rate, with an 84% chance of transitioning to the next age class, while the model for Aspen indicated strong slowdown after 31 years. The model indicated moderate early growth for Spruce with a high transition in later stages, highlighting its resilience in mature forest ecosystems. Sensitivity analysis revealed that while higher growth rates can prolong forest stand longevity, mortality rates above 0.33 severely compromise stand viability. The Hotelling T2 control chart identified critical deviations in forest dynamics, particularly in years 13 and 19, suggesting periods of environmental stress. The model offers actionable insights for sustainable forest management, emphasizing the importance of species-specific strategies, adaptive interventions, and the integration of climate change resilience into long-term forest planning.
Published Version
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