Modeling fiscal impacts using expert GIS: theory and strategy

Abstract

This paper examines how expert geographic information systems (EGIS) can be configured to estimate the impacts of urban land use and population change on the provision of local government services. To this end a generic definition of impacts is introduced. This generic definition is an aspatial one, and is represented in mathematical notation using a logic derived from the microeconomic theory of duality between production and cost. This framework for estimating impacts is then translated into explicitly geographical terms using EGIS concepts. A four-quadrant diagram is introduced that summarizes these relationships. It is argued here that EGIS has the potential to estimate impacts in a theoretically consistent manner for very specific urban contexts, and should therefore constitute a significant improvement over the existing state of the art.