Modeling extreme weather events for offshore wind in the North Sea: a sensitivity analysis to physics parameterizations in WRF

Abstract

Extreme weather events such as storms, cold fronts, and mesoscale convective systems, are capable of producing extreme and sudden precipitation, strong wind gusts and fast changes in wind direction, which are potentially harmful for the operation, power production and maintenance of wind farms. This study aims to provide insight into the modelling of three such events for the offshore wind farms located in the Belgian North Sea. This work extends the ongoing work on generalizing WRF model sensitivities to multiple extreme weather events. This sensitivity analysis considers three cases consisting of Storm Ciara, a low-pressure system and a cold front. These events are modeled using five model setups comprising different combinations of WRF physics parameterizations. The simulated wind direction and speed are evaluated against 10-min averaged SCADA data. The results indicate no single best model setup to accurately simulate all events. The combination of physical parameterization is observed to play a major role in model sensitivities. The use of scale-aware physical parameterization show potential for better performance but is heavily influenced by the combination of model physics and the type of event. No conclusive set of inferences are obtained from a qualitative evaluation of precipitation against observed radar data.