MODELING DHF IN CENTRAL JAVA USING HYBRID NONPARAMETRIC SPLINE TRUNCATED-FOURIER SERIES APPROACH

Abstract

Regression analysis aims to determine the relationship and influence of predictor variables on response variables through regression curve. The problem with nonparametric regression research so far is that it only uses one approach, causing the estimation results to be biased, even though each data sub-pattern has its own suitability depending on the approach method used. Therefore, the hybrid method emerged as a development of nonparametric regression. Hybrid models are models that combine approach methods, with the hope of increasing accuracy in modeling analysis. This research was carried out using two non-parametric approaches, namely Spline Truncated and Fourier Series. Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a disease caused by the dengue virus. DHF is endemic and occurs throughout the year, especially during the rainy season because mosquitoes reproduce optimally. The aim of this research is to estimate the Hybrid Nonparametric Spline Truncated -Fourier Series model and apply the estimation results to data on DHF cases in Central Java. The data used to apply the hybrid nonparametric Spline Truncated-Fourier series regression model is DHF in the city/districts of Central Java. Estimation smoothing parameters uses the GCV (Generalized Cross Validation) method. The best model is selected based on largest R-Square and the smallest MSE. Modeling the disease of DHF cases in Central Java using the Spline Truncated-Fourier Series hybrid estimator produced the best model from the Spline Truncated model with two knot points for each predictor and the Fourier Series model with value of 9. Based on the results obtained, it can be compared that the Truncated Spline-Fourier Series hybrid model is better than the Spline Truncated model, this can be seen from the largest R-square, namely 99.94% and the smallest MSE.