Modeling Current and Future Distribution of Epicauta Dejean (Meloinae, Epicautini) under Changing Climate Conditions in America.

Abstract

Epicauta Dejean is one of the largest genera within Meloidae, with approximately 400 species identified to date. In this work, I applied the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) to predict the current and future distribution of this genus in America. A total of 12,130 points and 19 bioclimatic variables were used to model its potential distribution area under current and future climate scenarios. Maxent showed high prediction performance, and 7 out of the 19 variables used were found to be the most influential on the current and future distribution of Epicauta. It also allowed to predict the distribution of Epicauta in geographical areas where different bioclimatic criteria are combined. These areas belong to several provinces of the Nearctic, Neotropical regions and the Mexican and South American transition zones. Maxent also revealed that in North America, the current and future potential distribution of Epicauta is located within 38°N 97°W, while in South America, it is further south, within 25°S 60°W. According to this, it can be concluded that its greatest diversity is circumscribed to temperate and semi-arid regions, and that the tropical habitats of middle America have apparently served as effective barriers to faunal exchange since the intercontinental connection that occurred four million years ago until now. The findings from the present study provide a theoretical basis to better understand the distribution patterns of Epicauta spp. under changing climate conditions.