Modeling Crash Risk on Roadway Networks using Bayesian Regression Trees

Abstract

Statistical modeling of vehicle crashes leads to a better understanding of how and why such crashes occur. Due to the irregular network structure of roadways, analyses are typically confined to a single roadway rather than considering the entire network collectively. Here, we present methodology to model crash risk of vehicle crashes on irregular roadway networks and estimate how that risk varies with road characteristics. We model vehicle crashes observed on a road network as a Poisson point pattern with a piecewise linear intensity surface. Further, we combine Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and spatial data analysis to accurately explain the intensity surface allowing inference on the effect of road characteristics on crash risk. We illustrate the methodology using a dataset of vehicle crashes on Interstate highways in Utah.