Modeling Covid-19 Cases and Deaths in Benelux Countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg) With Different Regression Methods

Abstract

In this study, the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths in Benelux countries were examined with linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, and exponential regression models. The number of Covid-19 cases and deaths, within a 50-day period between March 1, 2022, and April 19, 2022, in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg were examined. Models with the highest coefficient of determination (R2 ) and corrected coefficient of determination with significant parameter estimates were preferred in the selection of the most appropriate regression model. (𝑅̅2 ) The cubic regression model for the number of cases and the quadratic, cubic, and linear regression models for the number of deaths were found to be appropriate respectively in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. The R2 values of these models are 0.997, 0.9993 and 0.9982; 𝑅̅2 respectively and the values are 0.996, 0.9987 ve 0.9979 respectively. Regression models for the number of deaths were obtained as quadratic, cubic, and linear regression models in these countries, respectively. The R2 values of these models were 0.996, 0.9982 and 0.9848 respectively; 𝑅̅2 and the values were 0.995, 0.9977 and 0.9845 respectively. As a result, it was observed that regression models were an appropriate method to reveal the number of cases and deaths.