Modeling Coastal and Marine Environmental Risks in Belize: the Marine Integrated Decision Analysis System (MIDAS)

Abstract

The livelihood of coastal communities is directly linked to the health of intertidal and marine ecosystems. Coastal zones and marine areas are rapidly changing and highly vulnerable to impacts from climate change, accelerating human development, and over-fishing. Quality of life and the benefits of coastal development can be greatly enhanced, and costs minimized, by projecting and comparing alternative policy outcomes before management decisions are made. This article describes the Marine Integrated Decision Analysis System (MIDAS), an interactive decision support tool designed to assist the users and managers of Belize's system of marine management areas (MMAs) in understanding the interactions among various ecological, socioeconomic, and governance conditions in a spatially explicit manner. MIDAS can simulate and visualize the likely effects of alternative management strategies and therefore provides an important tool for evaluating potential scenarios. We developed two MIDAS modules to address specific threats in Belize –spatial risk resulting from mangrove deforestation in coastal areas and the potential effect of an oil spill off the coast of Belize. Workshops conducted in Belize indicate that diverse user groups such as fishers, tourism operators, and public environmental agencies can successfully utilize MIDAS to understand MMA outcomes, and environmental risks.