Modeling biodiversity changes and conservation issues in a desert sky island

Abstract

Sky islands are unique systems composed of well-defined biotic communities established along an elevation gradient. Habitat restrictions associated to climate change make the species vulnerable. This study aimed to forecast the changes in the distribution patterns, altitude and the slope effect in selected plant and vertebrate species inhabiting the sky island Sierra La Laguna as a result of the temperature increase in the near future. We modelled present-day and future potential geographic distributions of two sets of vertebrate and plant species — one associated with dry warm conditions and another with cold conditions — using a maximum entropy algorithm. The future geographic distribution was modelled considering three global circulation models and two extreme representation concentration pathways. Our results showed an elevational change of species composition from cold to warm conditions, increasing the range of the xeric and decreasing of the mesic, with the potential extinction of the endemic species associated to the cooler conditions. The species associated to cooler environment probably could be restricted to the canyons in the western slope of the sierra, that might function as refugia. It is critical for the management of the protected area, and the restriction of human and economic activities in the western slope.