Modeling and Performance of NAS in Inclement Weather

Abstract

The current demand in the National Airspace System (NAS) is rapidly approaching the system capacity. This capacity limit causes significant congestion and delay in off-nominal conditions, such as inclement weather. It will also constrain future growth in the aviation sector. Transformation of the current system can relieve this constraint. Examples of such transformation include (i) flight schedule shifting to periods of low demand or alternate airports, (ii) air traffic control (ATC) productivity enhancements, (iii) new procedures and airspace redesigns, and (iv) improvements in weather nowcasting and forecasting. Planners are now investigating such NAS architecture strategies. This paper describes research and plans regarding our investigation of future NAS performance in inclement weather days. Our NAS simulation allows researchers and decision makers to hypothesize strategies in various weather conditions and traffic demand levels to quantify the combined impact on the NAS. The results of the simulation will guide decisions regarding the value of investments in weather forecasting technology and NAS procedures. Our simulation approach is to use (i) archived weather and traffic schedule data with (ii) weather and traffic forecasting models and (iii) tactical weather vectoring and stochastic traffic flow management capabilities.