Benefits of En Route Free Maneuvering and En Route Trajectory Negotiation during Off-Nominal Conditions

Abstract

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting far-term research into a proposed concept for gate-to-gate national airspace system (NAS) operations called Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) in which flight deck crews, air traffic service providers and aeronautical operational control facilities use distributed decision-making. In this study we estimate the benefits of En Route Free Maneuvering and En Route Trajectory Negotiation in off-nominal conditions using empirical data. Specifically, the benefits we measure are the avoided disruption costs under inclement weather conditions due to the implementation of the two en route concept elements. The random nature of inclement weather makes the measurement of its impact on aviation a challenge. Since June 2003, the Department of Transportation's Airline Service Quality Performance (ASQP) data reports the major airlines' schedule/operation disruptions, in terms of flight cancellations, delays, and diversions, allocated to five cause categories, including extreme weather and non-extreme weather conditions. We extract the inclement weather- caused disruptions from the one-year period of July 2003 through June 2004 from the ASQP data. In developing the benefits pool, we recognize that these two concept elements' functionalities and capabilities could not eliminate all disruptions caused by weather conditions. We estimate the percentage of weather caused disruptions that can be helped by the two concept elements based on expert opinion. We estimate the NAS-wide benefits for year 2004 by extending the ASQP results to the non-ASQP carriers via linear extrapolation. We also extrapolate current NAS benefits to the projected benefits in year 2015, the target year of DAG-TM deployment, by developing and applying forecast parameters to year 2004 benefits based on the traffic forecast. Finally, we translate the operational performance benefits of reduced delay and avoided diversions/cancellations into economic benefits using FAA and other published cost factors. I. Introduction HE National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting far-term research into a proposed concept for gate-to-gate national airspace system (NAS) operations called Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM). DAG-TM is based on distributed decision making between flight deck crews, air traffic service providers (ATSP) and aeronautical operational control (AOC) personnel. The goal of DAG-TM is to increase system capacity/throughput, enable user preferences, and provide greater flexibility and efficiency, while meeting air traffic management (ATM) requirements and maintaining system safety and user accessibility to the NAS. DAG-TM will be accomplished with a human-centered operational paradigm enabled by procedural and technological innovations. These innovations include automation aids, information sharing and Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) / ATM technologies. The total DAG-TM concept is intended to address all user classes (commercial carriers, general aviation, etc.) with an emphasis towards ensuring access to airspace resources