Modeling and Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Energy Production in Wind and Photovoltaic Systems

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The comprehensive change from known, classical energy production methods to the increased use of renewable energy requires new methods in the field of efficient application and use of renewable energy. The urban energy supply presents complex challenges in improving efficiency; therefore, the prediction of the dynamical availability of energy is required. Several approaches have been explored, including statistical models and machine learning using historical data and numerical weather prediction models using mathematical models of the atmosphere and weather conditions. Accurately forecasting renewable energy production involves analyzing factors such as related weather conditions, conversion systems, and their locations, which influence both energy availability and yield. This study focuses on the short-term forecasting of wind and photovoltaic (PV) energy using historical data and machine learning approaches, aiming for accurate 8 h predictions. The goal is to develop models capable of producing accurate short-term forecasts of energy production from both resources (solar and wind), suitable for later use in a model predictive control scheme where generation and demand, as well as storage, must be considered together. Methods include regression trees, support vector regression, and regression neural networks. The main idea in this work is to use past and future information in the model. Inputs for the PV model are past PV generation and future solar irradiance, while the wind model uses past wind generation and future wind speed data. The performance of the model is evaluated over the entire year. Two scenarios are tested: one with perfect future predictions of wind speed and solar irradiance, and another considered realistic situation where perfect future prediction is not possible, and uncertain prediction is accounted for by incorporating noise models. The results of the second scenario were further improved using the output filtering method. This study shows the advantages and disadvantages of different methods, as well as the accuracy that can be expected in principle. The results show that the regression neural network has the best performance in predicting PV and wind generation compared to other methods, with an RMSE of 0.1809 for PV and 5.3154 for wind, and a Pearson coefficient of 0.9455 for PV and 0.9632 for wind.