Modeling and analysis of the entire process of hurricane loss based on probability theory

Abstract

This paper is about a research on sustained wind speed pattern of a hurricane, involving wind speed distribution, hazard analysis as well as further evaluation on its relationship with storm surge heights. It establishes a simulative model base on Hurricane Jose in 2017 and relative data are collected from NOAA. Weibull distribution can be helpful on monitering sustained wind speed and a probability density distribution curve showing the likelihood of a hurricane with magnitude similar to Jose to strike New York is established by mathematical calculation software. The possible risk is approximately evaluated based on this likelihood to reach a final damage budget. This research can be helpful on damage prediction and prevention on coastal natural hazard, especially for a time that as climate change enhances. With the help of results this reseach has obtained, a damage forecast can be made before a hurricaneforms in order to benefit decision makers to construct corresponding level of defence system to reduce loss when a hurricane actually approaches.