Abstract
AbstractThis article identifies marginal land technically available for the production of energy crops in China, compares three models of yield prediction forMiscanthus × giganteus,Panicum virgatumL.(switchgrass), andJatropha, and estimates their spatially specific yields and technical potential for 2017. Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of land use maps estimated that 185 Mha of marginal land was technically available for energy crops in China without using areas currently used for food production. Modeled yields were projected forMiscanthus × giganteus, a GIS‐based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model for switchgrass and Global Agro‐Ecological Zone model forJatropha. GIS analysis and MiscanFor estimated more than 120 Mha marginal land was technically available forMiscanthuswith a total potential of 1,761 dry weight metric million tonne (DW Mt)/year. A total of 284 DW Mt/year of switchgrass could be obtained from 30 Mha marginal land, with an average yield of 9.5 DW t ha−1 year−1. More than 35 Mha marginal land was technically available forJatropha, delivering 9.7 Mt/year ofJatrophaseed. The total technical potential from available marginal land was calculated as 31.7 EJ/year forMiscanthus, 5.1 EJ/year for switchgrass, and 0.13 EJ/year forJatropha. A total technical bioenergy potential of 34.4 EJ/year was calculated by identifying best suited crop for each 1 km2grid cell based on the highest energy value among the three crops. The results indicate that the technical potential per hectare ofJatrophais unable to compete with that of the other two crops in each grid cell. This modeling study provides planners with spatial overviews that demonstrate the potential of these crops and where biomass production could be potentially distributed in China which needs field trials to test model assumptions and build experience necessary to translate into practicality.
Highlights
Renewable energy is stimulated by China to be more produced in order to protect the environment and increase energy security
Another study conducted by Zhang, Chen, and Huang (2016) simulated that biofuels will account for 6.0%–22.5% of the total transport energy consumption in 2050 in different scenarios depending on different levels of carbon emission tax by using the TIMES
Taking into account the hostile natural conditions of marginal land characterized by low water availability, poor chemical and physical soil characteristics, poor climatic conditions or excess slope, and the goal of Chinese government to change food-based to nonfood bioenergy production, few nonfood dedicated energy crops could be considered as the main feedstocks for bioenergy production on marginal land on a large scale in the mid- and long-term plan in China
Summary
Renewable energy is stimulated by China to be more produced in order to protect the environment and increase energy security. In addition to the IEA, a study conducted by Lucas et al (2013) analyzed future bioenergy utilization in three global emission scenarios using the TIMER (Van Vuuren, van Ruijven, Hoogwijk, Isaac, & de Vries, 2006) model It showed that biofuel production in China in 2035 was projected to be 6.3 EJ/year, 17.2 EJ/year, and 13.4 EJ/year, accounting for 3.4%, 11.8%, and 10% of the total primary energy supply for three scenarios: the reference, least-cost, and Copenhagen scenario that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges (UNFCCC, 2009), respectively. We aimed to compare different methods of yield modeling of Miscanthus, switchgrass, and Jatropha and to estimate the current (2017) spatially specific yield and technical potential, as defined, of three types of energy crops cultivated on marginal land in China. An optimal spatial distribution of the three energy crops simultaneously cultivated on marginal land was obtained by using overlay analysis
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