Assessing the technical and economic potential of wind and solar energy in China—A provincial-scale analysis

Abstract

An accurate assessment of wind and solar resources is important for China's future transition to clean energy and the achievement of its carbon-neutrality goals. Based on climate data, geographical information, and the latest technical and economic information, this work estimates the total technical and economic potential of wind and solar power in China and their distribution by province. The main conclusions drawn by analyzing the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the potential of wind and solar energy are as follows. (1) Both wind and solar energy have sufficient technical potential to support China's vision of carbon neutrality by 2060. (2) The potential is unevenly distributed spatially and is more concentrated in western and northern China, away from demand centers, with Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia accounting for >76% of the total technical potential of onshore wind and solar energy. The offshore wind potential is fairly equally distributed in coastal provinces. (3) In the near-to-medium term (5–10 years), fully utilized local wind and solar resources could help to meet the requirements of the non-hydro Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), and could significantly ease the urgency of building long-distance cross-province power transmission lines. For provinces with below-average RPS targets, the suggested non-hydro RPS targets could be further enhanced. (4) In the long term, the construction of adequate west-east and south-north transmission lines will remain essential to the construction of a national carbon-neutral power system.