Modeled patterns of Late Pleistocene glacier inception and growth in the Southern and Central Rocky Mountains, USA: sensitivity to climate change and paleoclimatic implications

Abstract

High-resolution modern climate data for the Southern and Central Rocky Mountains provide a starting point for analysis of climate changes necessary to produce regional Late Pleistocene glaciation. A GIS-based model was used to assess the sensitivity of glaciation in different ranges to climatic change and the combinations of temperature and precipitation change necessary to sustain the last glacial maximum (LGM) extent of glaciation in each range. Extensive glaciation initiates first in the Wind River Range of Wyoming under every climate change scenario tested. In absence of precipitation change a summer temperature depression of 6–8 °C would be necessary to maintain LGM ice extents in Colorado and Wyoming. If precipitation was halved, necessary summer temperature depression would be 8–10 °C; if precipitation was doubled, a depression of 3.5–5.5 °C would suffice. Given model uncertainties, these values may underestimate necessary temperature depression by as much as 2 °C. Under all scenarios tested, LGM glaciation in Utah, particularly the Wasatch Range, requires either more temperature depression for given precipitation change, or more precipitation for a given temperature depression than is required in the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies. A summer temperature depression of 7 °C, which would suffice to sustain LGM ice extent with little change from modern precipitation in the Colorado/Wyoming Rockies, would need to be coupled with a near doubling of precipitation to maintain LGM ice extent in the Wasatch Range. This difference appears to reflect LGM precipitation enhancement in the Wasatch Range, and to a lesser degree the Uinta Mountains, resulting from the presence of Lake Bonneville immediately upwind of these ranges.