Modelacion del impacto del deshielo en lo caudales en la cuenca del Lago Mansfiled Hollow en Connecticut, USA

Abstract

Storm runoff predictions are essential for minimizing flood hazards and increasing resilience to extreme weather events. In this study, an analysis was conducted to simulate snowmelt runoff in the Mansfield Hollow Lake Watershed, which is a tributary of the Thames River watershed in Connecticut, New England. The United States Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) model HEC-HMS was applied to simulate snowmelt runoff during the winter-spring of 2010 and 2019. The Mansfield Hollow Lake Watershed is composed of three main tributaries, namely the Fenton, Mount Hope, and Natchaug Rivers. These runoff simulations and the watershed response to snowmelt are crucial for evaluating the potential impacts of watershed management decisions, particularly during high-flow periods. The HEC-HMS model was calibrated during the 2010 event and validated for the 2019 events. The study found that for the snow storms during 2010 and 2019 events, HEC-HMS model provided highly accurate predictions of snowmelt runoff with R-squared and, Nash - Sutcliffe correlation values exceeding 0.76. These findings highlight the efficacy of HEC-HMS model for simulating snowmelt runoff and demonstrate the utility of such model in predicting and managing flood risks. The results of this study provide valuable insights into the potential impacts of snowmelt runoff and will inform future watershed management decisions in the Mansfield Hollow Lake Watershed and similar regions.