Journal of Flood Risk Management

Abstract

Earlier this month I was updating my understanding of potential climate change impacts on the conditions that lead to flooding – principally the likely changes to future rainfall intensities and duration. What is clear is that although our ability to predict future climate is improving, the basic messages remain the same. These are that in a world of climate warming, extreme events are likely to get more intense and more frequent, but that the scale and rate of change remain very uncertain. Other factors, such as population growth, expansion of megacities, poverty, energy and a general scarcity of key resources, of course, add to the challenge of climate change. When taken together, the scale of the task for future flood risk managers is indeed daunting. However, as our recent Journal papers demonstrate, there are common threads emerging on which to build that important future. The first of these is that flood risk measures based entirely on hard engineering features are unlikely to prove sustainable. There are a number of reasons for this. In an uncertain future, the measures taken now will need to adapt as that future unfolds. Measures that cannot adapt may prove redundant, even in the short term. Also, single solutions may not deliver the benefits that a suite of smaller but integrated solutions might deliver. And thirdly, structural measures will need to work in harmony with non-structural solutions, recognising the important part that active community engagement in flood risk management might play. When the Journal was first launched, some of these concepts were in their infancy. It would not be true today to describe all of them as having reached maturity. Indeed, we are still struggling to deliver some of the more radical concepts, for example, how to equitably deliver schemes that involve the managed retreat of communities from areas at high risk of flooding. We are pleased to have published the outcome of some ground breaking research and innovative demonstration projects in the pages of this Journal over the last few years. These open up many possibilities to meeting the future challenges outlined above. Yet there is still much to do. The concept of social equality in flood risk management has yet to be fully developed. We have not satisfactorily addressed how to deliver some flood risk management measures in the poorer communities of the world. And given the projected rate of population growth, largely concentrated around the poorer communities in the mega cities of the world, how do we avoid the explosive growth of shanty towns that are so vulnerable to flooding? We must harness the energy of all professionals working in flood risk management. Innovation will be needed, where traditional approaches are challenged and new ideas welcomed. Innovation does not come naturally. Even in the research world, working practices often do not incentivise innovation, whilst in professional practice it can be actively discouraged in favour of more “secure” solutions. The importance of publishing case studies and demonstration projects alongside more academic research papers, is that it demonstrates to all the benefits that can be delivered through innovation and the sharing of knowledge. Therefore if we, as flood risk managers, are to play our part in shaping the future of the world, we need to share our experience on the practical delivery of flood risk measures as well as reporting the outcome of scientific research. As Editor, I very much hope that in our coming issues we will learn more about how innovation might practically be implemented. After all, our goal is not just to improve scientific knowledge, but to make a real difference to the future of society.