Model krafne: okvir procjene društvenog utjecaja niskougljične tranzicije na primjeru četiri grada u Hrvatskoj

Abstract

Just sustainability requires the transition of modern societies to a different organization of energy and material flows and a different distribution of well-being in the developed countries of the global North, including Croatia. One of the reasons for this is a fair contribution to global efforts to mitigate climate change at the state, regional and city level (as advocated, for example, by the METAR project). Systematic mitigation of climate change and societal adaptation to unavoidable disasters require mental models of the socio-ecological impacts of current and desired flow, derived from a comprehensive scientific paradigm of sustainable prosperity. However, the existing (causal-mechanistic) paradigm for understanding the interaction between ideological aspirations, the economic process and the natural environment is based on an unsustainable linear model of economic growth driven by fossil fuels for the accumulation of (economic) surplus value. Based on the precedent of a radical paradigm shift in the natural sciences, this article presents a mental model and analytical visualization derived from the so-called "donut" or "lifeline" economies. The degrowth doughnut encompasses biophysical, socio-economic and cultural elements that highlight the boundaries within which socio-metabolic processes can achieve sustainable and equitable outcomes compatible with climate stabilization and sustainable social well-being. The article shows the application of "doughnut" analytics to assess the social impact of interventions developed within the "METAR" network for the cities of Pula, Slavonski Brod, Zadar and Zagreb