Abstract
One of the most important problems while modeling stormwater drainage systems is the choice of rainfall scenario, which will take into account the real rainfall distribution over time. This problem is particularly significant due to the climate change observed in recent decades, manifested, among others, in the increase in the precipitation intensities or changes in their structure. Taking into account these forecasts is essential to safely design sewer systems and their proper operation. The work aims to verify the Euler type II standard rainfall used so far to model sewage systems in Poland and to develop the forecasted form of this pattern in the perspective of 2050. Precipitation data from measurement stations in Wrocław were used as research material. The prediction model of maximum rainfall amounts allowed to determine the forecasted increase in intensities of short-term rainfall (for the occurrence frequencies recommended by Standard EN 752:2017 for the dimensioning and modeling of sewage systems). On this basis, model hyetographs forecasted for 2050 were prepared for Wrocław. Their choice—as a future rainfall load in hydrodynamic modeling—will allow one to meet the requirements for the frequency of flooding occurrence from sewer systems and their safe operation over several decades.
Highlights
Climate changes are observed in Poland, as in other countries in Europe, and in the world.They are manifested by, among others, increases in air temperature and the occurrence frequency of extreme events, such as flash floods or urban floods [1]
From a set of 951 hyetographs, precipitation events with exceedance frequencies C(t) ≥ 1 year were selected for statistical analysis, obtaining a sample of 126 precipitation events
The initial analysis allows us to state that the features of mass distribution on dimensionless hyetographs of 51 investigated precipitation events are similar to the Euler type II model
Summary
Climate changes are observed in Poland, as in other countries in Europe, and in the world. Local DDF (depth duration frequency) curves, or IDF (intensity duration frequency) curves are used to create it, for the assumed exceedance probabilities (p), i.e., interchangeable precipitation occurrence frequencies (C = 1/p) (which is interpreted as: 1 time per C years), according to the recommendations of standard EN 752:2017 This standard distinguishes the permissible frequency of channel outflows in a seven-degree scale of environmental impact (for example defined locations of areas), within the scope of: p ∈ [100, 2]%, i.e., respectively: C ∈ [1, 50] years (the sewer systems design criteria for sewer flooding threats, according to EN 752 from 2017, are given in Supplementary Material). In this paper, the model Euler type II hyetograph, previously used to model sewage networks, was verified, and the forecast form of this model was developed in the perspective of 2050
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