Model exploration in gravitational-wave astronomy with the maximum population likelihood

Abstract

Hierarchical Bayesian inference is an essential tool for studying the population properties of compact binaries with gravitational waves. The basic premise is to infer the unknown prior distribution of binary black hole and/or neutron star parameters such component masses, spin vectors, and redshift. These distributions shed light on the fate of massive stars, how and where binaries are assembled, and the evolution of the Universe over cosmic time. Hierarchical analyses model the binary black hole population using a prior distribution conditioned on hyperparameters, which are inferred from the data. However, a misspecified model can lead to faulty astrophysical inferences. In this paper we answer the question: given some data, which prior distribution---from the set of all possible prior distributions---produces the largest possible population likelihood? This distribution (which is not a true prior) is $\overline{)\ensuremath{\pi}}$ (pronounced ``pi stroke''), and the associated maximum population likelihood is $\overline{)\mathcal{L}}$ (pronounced ``L stroke''). The structure of $\overline{)\ensuremath{\pi}}$ is a linear superposition of delta functions, a result which follows from Carath\'eodory's theorem. We show how $\overline{)\ensuremath{\pi}}$ and $\overline{)\mathcal{L}}$ can be used for model exploration/criticism. We apply this $\overline{)\mathcal{L}}$ formalism to study the population of binary black hole mergers observed in the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration's third gravitational-wave transient catalog. Based on our results, we discuss possible improvements for gravitational-wave population models.