Model computations on the impact of changing climate on natural regeneration of Scots pine in Finland

Abstract

Based on model computations, the regeneration of Scots pine (Pinussylvestris L.) in southern (60°N) and northern (66°N) Finland was studied in relation to an elevating temperature. The temperature elevation increased flowering and the subsequent seed crop, particularly in northern Finland, with a decrease in the frequency of zero crops. In southern Finland, the number of seedlings produced by each seed crop increased when applying wide spacing, but decreased when applying narrow spacing of parent trees. This was due to a decrease in soil moisture induced by the increasing evaporative demand and transpiration of the parent trees. In northern Finland, temperature elevation substantially increased the success of regeneration in terms of seedlings produced by each seed crop regardless of the spacing of parent trees. In terms of the density of seedling stands and the height and diameter growth of seedlings, the establishment of a seedling stand within a given period of time was substantially improved under the improved temperature conditions in both southern and northern Finland.