Model-Based Conceptual Design Optimization Methods: Disaggregated Weather System Follow-On

Abstract

The future of space-based defense weather systems is uncertain due to the cancellation of the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System and Defense Weather Satellite System programs. The U.S. Department of Defense Weather Satellite Follow-On program has been identified as the follow-on program and a potential pathfinder for the concept of disaggregation. The concept of disaggregation has the potential to reduce costs and increase system resiliency. However, current research literature does not address a systematic method for performing conceptual trades between large multifunction and small functionally cohesive spacecraft. A multifunction/multiorbit disaggregated space-system optimization methodology is proposed and applied to the weather system follow-on conceptual architecture problem. Real-coded mixed-integer optimization techniques are implemented to identify, assess, and compare alternative space-based weather system conceptual architectures. The resulting cost and performance figures of merit are analyzed to assess disaggregated space-based weather constellation cost effectiveness. The potential estimated life-cycle cost savings of approximately 3 billion U.S. dollars are modeled for a disaggregated weather system follow-on program versus a Defense Weather Satellite System analogous architecture. The resulting analysis is intended to demonstrate the applicability of the disaggregated integral system concept optimization methodology to assess multifunction, multiorbit disaggregation problems.