Model-based analysis of decarbonising the EU economy in the time horizon to 2050

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology of using the PRIMES energy system model to quantify various scenarios accompanying the “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050” published in March 2011 by the European Commission. The paper focuses as well on emission and cost implications.The model based analysis finds that the decarbonisation of the energy system is possible with technologies known today; the power generation sector reduces emissions the most, but also demand side sectors reduce their emissions considerably. Despite considerable restructuring towards using electricity, transportation shows residual emissions by 2050 mainly due to the long-distance road freight transport and aviation. The energy system costs for decarbonisation were found to represent between 0.24 and 1.63 percentage points of cumulative GDP over the time period 2010–2050 higher than in a Reference scenario case which obtains the Climate and Energy package targets in 2020 and a long-term target of 40% emission reductions compared to 1990. The cost range depends on the timely availability of certain decarbonisation options (e.g. CCS, electrification in transportation) and on the extent of emission reduction actions worldwide.