Benefits of low carbon development in a developing country: Case of Nepal

Abstract

This paper analyzes the direct and indirect benefits of reducing CO2 emission during 2005 to 2100 in the case of Nepal, a low income developing country rich in hydropower resource. It discusses the effects on energy supply mix, local pollutant emissions, energy security and energy system costs of CO2 emission reduction targets in the country by using an energy system model based on the MARKAL framework. The study considers three cases of CO2 emission reduction targets and analyzes their benefits during the study period as compared to the reference scenario. The first two cases consist of a 20% cutback (Scenario ERT20) and 40% cutback (Scenario ERT40) (of CO2 emission in the reference scenario). The third case considers a 40% cutback of CO2 emission with the share of electric mass transport (EMT) in the land transport service demand increased to 30% (as compared to 20% in the reference scenario). The study shows that an implementation of Scenario ERT40 would increase the cumulative electricity generation (mainly from hydropower) by 16.5% (794 TWh), reduce the cumulative consumption of imported fuels by 42% (24,400 PJ) and increase the total energy system cost by 1.6% during 2005 to 2100 as compared to the reference scenario. Besides, there would be a reduction in the emission of local pollutants and generation of additional employment in the country. With the share of EMT increased to 30%, there would be a further reduction in local pollutant emissions, an improvement in energy security and a decrease in the energy system cost compared to that in Scenario ERT40.