Model Analysis on the Birth Rate in China

Abstract

This paper delves into the modeling and prediction of the birth rate in China, exploring the connection between Chinas economy and the birth rate using R. The study aims to find the best model to make a short-term forecast for the future birth rate in China. The research analyzes the birth rate data from 1950 to 2018 and identifies the factors that contribute to the decline in the birth rate in China. The study uses the ARIMA and ETS models to forecast China's birth rate and compare their performance. The research findings suggest that the ARIMA model outperforms the ETS model in forecasting the birth rate in China. The study culminates in emphasizing the importance of grasping the birth rate trends, particularly in crafting social policies, strategizing infrastructure development, and fostering economic growth. Policymakers should use the insights from this research to address the challenges of an aging population with a slowing economy in China.