The research of analysis lung, bronchus and trachea cancer death rate in US

Abstract

This research delves into an analysis of lung, bronchus, and trachea cancer rates in the United States across genders. Employing the data spanning seven decades (1950-2020) sourced from the Our World in Data website, the study leverages time series modeling techniques, ARIMA and ETS models. The ARIMA methodology initiates with an assessment of data stationarity, followed by differencing procedures to transform the dataset into a non-stationary data. Subsequently, Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots are examined. Last, the ARIMA model is fitted to dissect the mortality rates among males and females. Simultaneously, the ETS model is directly applied to the mortality data of both genders. The components of the ETS model and the check residuals for ETS are delineated. The outcomes reveal the trends: both genders exhibit a discernible decline in lung, bronchus, and trachea cancer death rates over the period. Despite this downward trajectory, the persistent mortality rates underscore the gravity of the issue. This paper advocates for a heightened focus on lung-related cancers. Understanding and addressing these mortality rates are imperative.