Abstract

Background: Branch duct-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) is a risk factor for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), but the groups at high risk for developing PDAC during the follow-up period of BD-IPMN are not clear. Objectives: To identify the risk factors for PDAC development during the follow-up period of BD-IPMN. Subjects and Methods: We investigated 230 patients undergoing follow-up of BD-IPMN; the median follow-up period was 56.9 months, and the range was 3-276 months. Among these patients, 10 developed pancreatic cancer (PDAC, 7; intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma [IPMC], 3). The 230 patients were divided into 2 groups: PDAC group, which included 7 patients; and non-PDAC group, which included 223 patients. The PDAC and non-PDAC groups were compared with respect to the following factors: sex; age; follow-up period; number of BD-IPMNs; size of BD-IPMNs; diameter of the main pancreatic duct (MPD); size of mural nodules; family history of pancreatic cancer (within the second degree of relationship); family history of digestive organ cancer, except pancreatic cancer (within the second degree of relationship); diabetes mellitus; adiposis (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 30 kg/m2); chronic pancreatitis; and history of smoking. A chi-square test and a t test were used for univariate analysis, and logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis. Results:Univariate analysis showed that adiposis (p = 0.016), chronic pancreatitis (p = 0.038), and a family history of pancreatic cancer (p = 0.006) were the factors significantly associated with PDAC development. Multivariate analysis of these 3 factors showed that adiposis (p = 0.000, odds ratio = 60.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.18-599.92), chronic pancreatitis (p = 0.023, odds ratio = 13.0, 95% CI = 1.42-119.35), and a family history of pancreatic cancer (p = 0.003, odds ratio = 21.1, 95% CI = 2.87-156.49) were independently associated with PDAC development. Conclusions: Our results showed that adiposis (BMI ≥ 30 kg/ m2), chronic pancreatitis, and a family history of pancreatic cancer (within the second degree of relationship) were risk factors for PDAC development during the follow-up period of BD-IPMN patients.

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