MmSTCT: spatial–temporal convolution transformer network considering driving intention for multimodal vehicle trajectory prediction of highway

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Due to the dynamic nature of traffic flow and the uncertainty of drivers' maneuvers, multimodal trajectory prediction remains challenging. In this paper, a multimodal vehicle trajectory prediction model is proposed based on the encoder-decoder structure, utilizing a spatial-temporal dilated causal convolutional transformer network for the hierarchical extraction of driving intention and spatial interaction features. Specifically, temporal information is extracted from the initial motion states by utilizing a bi-directional long short-term memory network. Subsequently, the social interaction module and spatial-temporal dependency module are introduced to model the interactive influences among surrounding vehicles and the target vehicle at the same timestamp as well as at different timestamps. Then adaptive fusion of driving intention is performed to generate multiple queries for accommodating the output of multimodal trajectory prediction module in a non-autoregressive manner. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through experimental evaluations on the NGSIM, HighD and CitySim datasets.