MJO Anomalies relationship with Volcanic Eruption in Indonesian Archipelago

Abstract

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale atmospheric phenomenon that crosses the equator with a propagation area ranging from 15° North to 15° South, and moves from west to east, precisely from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific. MJO propagation is usually characterized by the rising of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Indian Ocean respectively. MJO anomaly is closely related to the variability of weather in the area it passes, including the Indonesian Archipelago. The impact of MJO anomaly in Indonesian Archipelago itself is suspected to cause not only excessive rainfall, but also a very long consecutive No Rain Days (NRD), with in the end can also trigger massive crop failures. In addition to SST, there are also external events that can affect the duration of the MJO, i.e. volcanic eruptions. Therefore, the study aims to determine the effect of volcanic eruption events on MJO anomalies, through the SST variable as an MJO anomaly parameter and also the occurrence of volcanic eruptions in the same time span. Data from both variables were taken over a period of 35 years, from 1982 to 2016. The SST data is a daily average data, obtained from ESRL NOAA, which is then filtered by the Bandpass Filter method to reinforce the oscillation of data. The MJO anomaly that seen from the SST fluctuations is then matched with time data and the duration of volcanic eruption events over the same time span. It found out that there are three MJO anomalies occurred during the time span of 35 years, and it is hypothesized that they were clearly in correspondence between the duration of volcanic eruption events with the incidence of MJO anomalies in Indonesian Archipellago.