Mitigation of severe wintertime disasters in northern Mongolia through the early implementation of local action

Abstract

The frequency of climate-driven disasters in Mongolia has increased over the last two decades. Specifically, a series of devastating dzuds occurred in 1999–2000, 2000–2001, 2001–2002, and 2009–2010, leading to total losses of about 18 million livestock. Although dzuds are primarily caused by extreme climatic conditions, socioeconomic factors, notably a lack of early preparations and mitigative actions against climate-related hazards may partially account for their occurrence. Our aim was to identify dzud-inducing climatic and socioeconomic factors and to evaluate the effectiveness of early actions implemented by national and local governments and by herders. Accordingly, we conducted interview-based surveys in two neighboring soums with similar environments in Khuvsgul aimag, in northern Mongolia, to examine factors influencing their markedly different livestock mortality rates (11.7% in Tsetserleg versus 0.6% in Tsagaan-Uul) during the winter of 2016–2017. We further analyzed the timeline of all actions taken against dzuds and their effects. An analysis of climatic conditions revealed a slightly higher normalized anomaly value for snow depth in Tsetserleg than that in Tsagaan-Uul, which not only prevented grazing but also limited access of vulnerable herding households to assistance. At the local governmental level, inadequate hay and fodder, poor organization and management of emergency actions in Tsetserleg soum were primary causes of the high livestock mortality rate while at the herders’ level, the mortalities were possibly exacerbated by shorter-distance seasonal movements and the absence of otor. The findings of the study suggest that early actions are critical factors in reducing dzud-induced damage.