Abstract
The erosion-safe mode (ESM) is a novel mitigation strategy that reduces rainfall-induced erosion damage by lowering the tip-speed of the turbine during precipitation events. The ESM requires accurate information about future expected rainfall for its control. In current research, it is debated what method or source should be used to this end. This study explores the effectiveness of driving the ESM using a state-of-the-art weather-radar-based probabilistic rainfall nowcast provided by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). The performance of the nowcast is assessed for various lead times with an impingement-based damage model for three sample sites in the Netherlands and for two distinct ESM strategies. The results show that the quality of the nowcast degrades with increasing lead times, where the 5- and 15-minute lead times exhibit sufficiently good accuracy and response time for adjusting turbine speeds. Overall, the results highlight that the probabilistic information in the nowcast can be employed to improve the efficiency and viability of the ESM.
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