Mirror Images?

Abstract

The United States of America, Norway, Denmark and Canada are conducting a united and coordinated policy of barring Russia from the riches of the shelf. It is quite obvious that much of this doesn't coincide with economic, geopolitical and defence interests of Russia, and constitutes a systemic threat to its national security.-Russian coundl secretary Nikolai Patrushev, Rossiiskaya Gazeta, 30 March 2009Canada takes its responsibility for its lands and water seriously and this is why we react so strongly when other nations like Russia engage in exercises and other activities that appear to challenge our in the North ... [and] push the envelope when it comes to Canada's Arctic... The Canadian Forces have a real role to play in defending our sovereignty in the North.-Lawrence Cannon to the Economic Club of Canada, 20 November 2009 The is a topic of growing geostrategic importance. Climate change, resource issues, undefined continental shelfboundari.es, potential maritime transportation routes, and issues now factor significantly into the domestic and foreign policy agendas of the five littoral states. The region has also attracted the attention of non- states and organizations, some of which assert the need to protect the global commons from excessive national claims, and some of which aUegedly covet resources. Whether these geopolitical dynamics constitute an inherently conflictual Arctic race or a mutuaUy beneficial polar saga unfolding according to international law is hotly debated.Both Canada and Russia have extensive jurisdictions and sovereign rights in the and see the as their frontier of destiny. The region plays a central role in their national identities. Both countries intertwine sovereignty issues with strong rhetoric asserting their status as Arctic powers and have promised to invest in new military capabilities to defend their jurisdictions. Fortunately, for all the attention that hardline rhetoric generates in the media and in academic debate, it is only one part of a more complex picture.Nevertheless, commentators like Rob Huebert point to Russia as Canada's foremost adversary in the circumpolar world.1 If Americans have constituted the primary threat to Canadian sovereignty, the Russians have been recast in the familiar Cold War role of the primary threat. Russia, after aU, has been the most determined player. Its domestic and foreign policy has repeatedly emphasized the region's importance, particularly since Putin's second presidential term, and assertive rhetoric about protecting national interests has been foUowed up by actions seeking to enhance Russia's position in the region. A new strategy released in September 2008 described the region as Russia's main base for natural resources in the 21st century. Considering Russia's dependency on these resources and its concerns that western interests are diverging from its own, that the US still intends to keep Russia down, and that the western military presence in the reflects anti-Russian strategic agendas,2 realists like Huebert and Scott Borgerson interpret the Russian approach as confrontational and destabilizing. Does this hard security discourse portend an Arctic arms race and a new Cold War in the region?3The key audience for confrontational rhetoric is domestic. In its official policy and statements on the high north, Russia foUows a pragmatic line and pursues its territorial claims in compliance with international law. Leaders dismiss foreign criticisms that they are flexing their muscles to extend their daims beyond their legal entitlement. The prevailing international message that Russia seeks to project is that it will abide by international law but that it will not be pushed around by neighbours who might encroach on its jurisdiction.4This mixed messaging is disconcerting to Canadian observers who see Russia as belligerent and aggressive. …