Minimum marginal abatement cost curves (Mini-MAC) for CO2 emissions reduction planning

Abstract

The economic impact of CO2 emissions reduction requirements demands strategic planning to identify low-cost CO2 mitigation pathways from combinations of the many available CO2 emissions reduction options. Different tools have been developed to plan minimal cost CO2 reduction pathways taking into consideration various options such as CO2 capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS), shifting from fossil to renewable energy sources, as well as adopting sector-specific low emissions technologies. Current methods used to support strategic planning include high-level tools that cannot account for many possible options or fail to incorporate cost objective, and complex optimization approaches that are capable of identifying detailed low-cost solutions yet are demanding to use and often yield complex solutions in terms of processing schemes that are not easily understood by strategic planners. To address these limitations, a simple and clear methodology is proposed that allows to determine minimum cost CO2 reduction pathways from the rich set of available options. The novel methodology employs an algebraic targeting technique that yields minimum marginal abatement cost (Mini-MAC) curves to clearly represent the low-cost CO2 emissions reduction pathway available. The application of the methodology is illustrated with an example to develop minimum cost emissions reduction pathways considering CCUS, power shifting options, and negative emissions technologies. The benefits of the proposed Mini-MAC curves over alternative methods stem from their richness in terms of assessing CCUS, energy management options, and various integration options. Further, the clarity of the proposed Mini-MAC curves enables planners to easily understand available minimum cost pathways when developing strategies aimed at achieving low-cost CO2 emissions reduction.Graphical abstract