Abstract
Current flood vulnerability analyses rely on deterministic methods (e.g., stage–damage functions) to quantify resulting damage and losses to the built environment. While such approaches have been used extensively by communities, they do not enable the propagation of uncertainty into a risk- or resilience-informed decision process. In this paper, a method that allows the development of building fragility and building loss functions is articulated and applied to develop an archetype portfolio that can be used to model buildings in a typical community. The typical single-variable flood vulnerability function, normally based on flood depth, is extended to a multi-variate flood vulnerability function, which is a function of both flood depth and flood duration, thereby creating fragility surfaces. The portfolio presented herein consists of 15 building archetypes that can serve to populate a community-level model to predict damage and resulting functionality from a scenario flood event. The prediction of damage and functionality of buildings within a community is the first step in developing risk-informed mitigation decisions to improve community resilience.
Highlights
Flood hazards are being exacerbated by climate change, making flood risk quantification and adaptive mitigation to flood risk increasingly challenging
Single-variable flood fragility and loss curves were developed for the whole building archetypes using flood depth as the sole flood damaging characteristic
Multi-variate flood fragility and loss surfaces were developed based on both flood depth and flood duration
Summary
Flood hazards are being exacerbated by climate change, making flood risk quantification and adaptive mitigation to flood risk increasingly challenging. The focus is on the flood vulnerability of the building stock and the development of fragilities for use in modeling flood damage prediction at the community-level. Some researchers tried to enhance the current stage–damage functions [31,67] and propagate uncertainties in both the empirical [68] and synthetic stage–damage functions [19] Those probabilistic methods were not general enough to develop a portfolio of flood fragility functions that could be used at the community-level. In this paper, a probabilistic method that uses component-based fragilities is articulated and used to develop single-variable and multi-variate flood fragilities and loss functions for a number of archetypes aimed at creating a proposed minimal building archetype portfolio for application at the community-level. The fragility and loss functions developed and presented can help quantify the impact of flood mitigation measures, policy decisions, and building design decisions at a community scale
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