Mine Surface Settlement Prediction Based on Optimized VMD and Multi-Model Combination

Abstract

The accurate prediction of mining area surface deformation is essential to preventing large-scale coal mining-related surface collapse and ensure safety and daily life continuity. Monitoring subsidence in mining areas is challenged by environmental interference, causing data noise. This paper employs the Sparrow Search Algorithm, which integrates Sine Cosine and Cauchy mutation (SCSSA), to optimize variational mode decomposition (VMD) and combine multi-models for prediction. Firstly, SCSSA is employed to adaptively determine the parameters of VMD using envelope entropy as the fitness value. Subsequently, the VMD method optimized using SCSSA adaptively decomposes the original mining area subsidence data sequence into various sub-sequences. Then, SCSSA-VMD is applied to adaptively decompose the original mining subsidence data sequence into multiple sub-sequences. Meanwhile, using sample entropy, the sub-sequences are categorized into trend sequences and fluctuation sequences, and different models are employed to predict sub-sequences at different frequencies. Finally, the prediction results from different sub-sequences are integrated to obtain the final prediction of mining area subsidence. To validate the predictive performance of the established model, experiments are conducted using GNSS monitoring data from the 110801 working face of Banji Coal Mine in Bozhou. The results demonstrate the following: (1) The hybrid model enhanced the prediction accuracy and trends by decomposing the data and optimizing the parameters with VMD. It outperformed single models, reducing errors and improving predictive trends. (2) The hybrid model significantly improved the prediction accuracy for subsidence data at work surface monitoring stations. It is particularly effective at critical subsidence points, making it a valuable reference for safety in mining operations.