Millions more Egyptians will be exposed to drought by 2100 under the goals of the Paris climate agreement

Abstract

The Paris climate agreement, one of the most promising global agreements on climate change, aims to limit global warming to 2.0 °C by 2100, with an even more ambitious goal of limiting it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. Achieving these goals would result in the least severe impacts of climate change. This study assessed the future exposure of the Egyptian population to various drought events. An ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6), was used to simulate future changes. The Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was employed to calculate drought conditions in two timeframes: early (2020–2059) and late (2060–2100). The findings revealed that even under these low-emission scenarios, an additional 33 million Egyptians would experience an increased frequency of droughts. However, the magnitude of this increase would be less for longer and more severe droughts. By 2100, the number is expected to remain almost the same for SSP1-1.9, while it would rise to 44 million for SSP1-2.6. Furthermore, the frequency of droughts would increase by 3.90 % and 2.65 % in the two futures for SSP1-1.9 and by 4.83 % in the late future for SSP1-2.6. These climate change signals were found to be robust. Overall, the study suggests that short-term droughts are likely to increase more significantly compared to longer-term droughts. The future climate projections presented in this study can provide valuable insights for developing strategies to monitor, adapt to, and mitigate the impacts of climate change in Egypt.