Military security in the Arctic: New threats to Russia

Abstract

In recent years, the military and political landscape in the Arctic has changed significantly. This region has been rapidly losing the status of a ‘zone for peace and cooperation’, turning into an arena of increasingly intense interstate rivalry. The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO became a landmark event in the evolution of the military and political situation in the Arctic. This article attempts to identify the causes and driving forces behind these processes, as well as to assess the threats they pose to Russia’s national security. In the first section the authors argue that the NATO countries under the pretext of the growing hybrid threat from the Russian Federation have themselves launched an active information campaign in the spirit of hybrid warfare aimed at demonizing Russia and enforcing on public a Cold War-style black-and-white picture of reality as a ‘zero-sum game’. Moreover, the authors emphasize that this anti-Russian campaign began long before the aggravation of the ‘Ukrainian crisis’. As such, it reflects the American elites’ awareness of the growing decline in the U.S. influence and the erosion of the ‘rules-based order’. The second section examines the specific steps taken by the United States and its allies in order to build up their military and political potential in the Arctic and accelerate the militarization of the region. Special attention is paid to the bilateral agreements on security cooperation between the United States and Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark. According to these agreements, Washington was able to deploy personnel, equipment and weapons in these countries on a permanent basis and conduct military exercises. In these conditions, the main threats to Russia’s military security in the Arctic, according to the authors, include: deployment of the U.S. / NATO military infrastructure and troops in the region; the formation of an anti-Russian bloc of Scandinavian states under the control of the alliance; modernization of the Arctic powers’ armed forces; intensification of naval activities of NATO countries in the Arctic seas. In general, the military-strategic situation in the Arctic has already deteriorated significantly with regard to the national interests of the Russian Federation. However, the authors stress that both the current situation in the region and possible scenarios for its future development cannot be assessed in isolation from the general crisis of international relations, focusing solely on regional aspects of security. Apart from the Arctic, tensions are growing in other regions of the world, which also requires the West to allocate there more resources in order to maintain its influence.